4 shopping trends to expect in uncertain financial times [data + how marketers can adapt]

If you've watched the news recently, the possibility of a recession has captured everyone’s attention.

Most reputable sources say it's too soon to say whether or not a recession will happen, but, regardless, savvy businesses are thinking ahead and considering how their potential customers might react. 

To give insight into how consumer behaviors are or could be shifting, I surveyed more than 200 U.S. consumers to ask them if their spending behaviors have already changed amidst the possibility of a recession, and how they would change if we were to enter one. 

Table of Contents

• What is a recession?
• Are we in a recession?
• How Consumer Spending Habits Could Be Changing Today [2025 Data]
• How Spending Could Change in a Recession
• How an Upcoming Recession Could Differ from 2008

Recessions can be induced by global economic shocks, changes in consumer confidence, and other large-scale economic changes.

But this year, in particular, there are a select few factors that have spurred concern about a potential recession, including tariffs and federal job cuts.

For more on the cause of recessions and why some are concerned about them happening in the near future, check out this helpful post from our partners at The Hustle.

Are we in a recession?

I’m not an economist, so I looked to trained professionals for this answer. 

JP Morgan Chase placed 2025 recession expectations at 60%, and in early March of 2025, the former Treasury Secretary said there is close to a 50/50 chance of a recession in 2025. While the stock market dropped in April (The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the month with a 3.2% loss), the market returned a few weeks ago. 

This being said, we (and by we I mean financial experts, not me, a HubSpot Blog writer) can’t declare a recession until there are two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and that hasn’t happened.

How Consumer Spending Habits Could be Changing Today [Data]

1. How has...